Geopolitical anxieties around US-China relations and risks in the Taiwan Strait will drive supply-chain diversification over the 2020s. The fading attractiveness of China’s business environment will complement these discussions.

Consumer prices fell by 0.2% month on month in June, according to the Banco Central de Chile (BCCh, the central bank). This came as a surprise: EIU’s expectation—and the consensus view—was that prices would rise.

On July 19th Thailand’s constitutional court ordered the suspension of the Move Forward Party (MFP) prime ministerial candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, as a member of parliament on the grounds of his share ownership in a media company, which is prohibited by electoral rules.

In EIU’s August 2023 Global Outlook video, global forecasting director, Agathe Demarais, and commerce and regulation lead & US analyst, Andrew Viteritti, discuss what to expect from the upcoming US presidential and congressional elections.

In EIU’s August 2023 Global Outlook video, global forecasting director, Agathe Demarais, and commerce and regulation lead & US analyst, Andrew Viteritti, discuss what to expect from the upcoming US presidential and congressional elections.

Growth across emerging Asian economies remains the envy of much of the world, but by its historic standards it is weak. The region will experience an extended cyclical downturn in 2023‑24.

China dominates supply chains for batteries and critical raw materials, which poses risks for US and EU companies in the electric-vehicle (EV) sector.

Israel has declared a state of war and called up thousands of reservists after a multi-pronged attack by Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the most densely populated area in the world, the Gaza Strip, which is under a long-running Israeli blockade. Although the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has warned of “a long and difficult war”, EIU expects Israel will win a quick military victory. However, Israel is expected to remain without a strategy to achieve a solution to the conflict that the Palestinians could accept.

As climate change has become a more significant issue, green parties have increased their representation in European parliaments, and are now represented in coalition governments in six EU member states.

Climate-related themes are poised to play a larger role in the global trade landscape, as national climate ambitions drive a new wave of protectionism. Subsidy-driven industrial policies, aimed at encouraging renewable technology adoption, are raising concerns around market distortion.