The consumer price index (CPI) slumped to a year-on-year decline of 0.5% in November, according to data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 9th.

Iran and Saudi Arabia will start formal discussions this month over the resumption of direct flights, according to Iran’s state-affiliated media, building on the diplomatic rapprochement agreed in March.

The Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank) kept its policy rate on hold at its meeting on December 12th-13th, at a target range of 5.25-5.5%. However, it has softened its outlook for interest rates, anticipating no more increases (one previously) and three rate cuts by end-2024 (two previously). In response, financial markets have priced in a more rapid easing cycle than we think is likely in 2024.

The EU-China summit was held in Beijing, the Chinese capital, from December 7th‑8th. The meetings discussed trade, regional security concerns, human rights and China’s support of Russia in its war against Ukraine. The engagement failed to ease major EU‑China tensions, however, which supports our view that bilateral ties will worsen in 2024.

A key goal of COP28 was responding to the “global stocktake” produced by the UN, which outlined the progress of action against climate change. The stocktake estimates that the world is currently on track to reach 2.5°C‑2.9°C of warming by 2100 and emissions must fall 43% by 2030 to keep warming to 1.5°C. Advocates for stronger action hoped to leverage this towards an international commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, but this was opposed by fast-growing industrial economies and hydrocarbons producers, most notably Saudi Arabia.

On December 12th Argentina’s new economy minister, Luis Caputo, announced emergency measures to undo the macroeconomic imbalances inherited from the previous government’s use of heterodox fiscal, monetary and trade policies, which led to triple‑digit inflation and an economic recession.

As expected, on December 14th‑15th the European Council took the historic decision to open EU accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova, while granting candidate status to Georgia.

The opening of the Lobito railway corridor is a significant milestone for Angola and its landlocked, mineral-rich neighbours.

China’s population has reached its peak and is projected to remain above 1.39bn until 2035. After a brief rebound, the number of newborns is expected to return to its previous downward trend owing to a combination of fewer women of reproductive age and declining fertility rates.

In EIU’s February 2024 Global Outlook video, director of industry analysis, Ana Nicholls, and automotive analysts, Arushi Kotecha and Nishita Aggarwal, discuss demand trends for electric vehicles (EVs) and supply-chain disruptions as a result of the China-US trade war.