The euro area registered a moderate quarterly growth rate of 0.3% during the fourth quarter, after growing solidly by 2.2% during the third. The deceleration was in line with our expectations and was due to three main factors. First, the manufacturing sector continued to struggle with supply-chain disruptions. Second, energy prices reached record highs across Europe, driven in particular by a surge in gas prices, weighing on purchasing power.

Two months before the French presidential election, there are many candidates in the race. However, there are only a handful of serious contenders, and the president, Emmanuel Macron, remains the frontrunner. The key question is, will he win re-election? Our forecast is yes.

The US mid-term elections, to be held on November 8th, will be the main focus for US domestic politics this year. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives (the lower house of Congress) are up for grabs, as well as a third of those in the Senate (the upper house).

Asia’s financial services hubs will seek to strengthen cryptocurrency regulations and maintain their balancing act in attempting to minimise speculative and compliance risks.

The 2021 edition of the EIU’s Democracy Index sheds light on continued challenges to democracy worldwide, under pressure from the coronavirus pandemic and increasing support for authoritarian alternatives.

New initiatives by governments are likely to be limited in 2022, as high energy prices and insufficient international funding for developing countries will limit overall progress.

Today EIU announced the launch of Operational Risk, an integrated service that combines EIU’s market-leading data and country expertise in a rigorous risk-modelling framework.

On June 27th India and the EU will relaunch the first round of formal free-trade negotiations after a hiatus of nine years. The deal aims nearly to double bilateral trade over five years, from around US$115bn in 2021.

In EIU’s latest global outlook video, global forecasting director Agathe Demarais, and global economist Cailin Birch, discuss potential triggers for a US recession, amid slowing growth and record-high inflation in America.

In late June Dubai Statistics Centre published first-quarter 2022 real GDP data for the emirate, indicating year-on-year growth of 5.9% in January-March. A combination of the impact of high international oil prices on regional liquidity, the reopening of international travel following the coronavirus pandemic and initiatives aimed at bolstering the private sector and promoting foreign investment will continue to support strong economic growth in the UAE.