On July 19th Thailand’s constitutional court ordered the suspension of the Move Forward Party (MFP) prime ministerial candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, as a member of parliament on the grounds of his share ownership in a media company, which is prohibited by electoral rules. The court has yet to pass a final verdict on the charge. On the same day, parliament voted that Pita’s renomination bid as prime minister should not be allowed even if he is cleared by the constitutional court. He had failed to secure parliamentary endorsement on July 13th. 

Pita’s failure to be endorsed as prime minister has clearly illustrated that the military establishment continues to wield great influence in Thai politics. The debate on whether Pita’s renomination can be done (or is not contravening parliament rules) was put to a vote, and he received even fewer endorsements compared to the first round. This has dampened hopes that the new government will be formed from the May 14th election, which resulted in a decisive victory for opposition forces led by the anti‑establishment MFP; this would have led the country in a more democratic direction. It is now likely that if there is a constitutional amendment, it will neither include a change to the lese majeste law nor reduce the military’s power significantly.

EIU believes that the Pheu Thai Party (PTP), which won the second-largest number of seats in the election, will submit a candidate at the next prime ministerial vote. The question is whether the PTP will choose to stay with the current eight-party coalition stitched together by the MFP or seek to form a new coalition of their own. If they choose the latter, the parties will probably include members of the former military-aligned coalition, which will anger those who voted for change and a reduction in military influence in politics at the election. This will diminish the party’s future election prospects. 

Near-term protests by MFP supporters angered by recent events are likely. The young MFP supporters have indicated that they will strategise to return even stronger in future elections. Despite widespread anger and disappointment, we do not expect the protests to grow large enough to cause a prolonged disruption to the government’s functioning. 

When parliament next convenes on July 27th, we expect the PTP to nominate a property tycoon, Srettha Thavisin, as prime minister. If the PTP forms a new coalition that includes the Bhum Jai Thai party and the Phalang Pracharat party (the latter has close ties with many senators), Srettha will probably be endorsed. If it decides to stick with the MFP, the PTP may still struggle to get sufficient Senate endorsement.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the economic, political and policy outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.