South Korea’s Ministry of Finance announced the state budget proposal for 2024 in late August. The government proposes a 2.8% increase in fiscal expenditure to W656.9trn (US$495bn). The modest proposal for budget expansion reflects a shift to fiscal consolidation.

China is playing hardball in debt‑restructuring negotiations under the G20 Common Framework. A first breakthrough with Zambia’s official creditors has established some important modalities for debt treatment that can be applied elsewhere. However, China and other creditors are at variance over some important issues.

On October 10th the administration of the US president, Joe Biden, issued a series of statements condemning the attack on Israel by Hamas, a US-designated Islamist terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip.

Though EIU expects stable, but unspectacular, global growth in 2024, continued geopolitical tensions, monetary tightening and supply chain disruptions could weigh heavily on the global economy in the coming year.

The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on October 7th has abruptly ended a sell-off in the crude oil market and has contributed to rising natural gas prices in Europe.

EIU’s annual industry report, “Industry outlook 2024“, provides growth prospects, risks and trends facing six critical sectors in the coming year, as inflation eases but geopolitical tensions remain high.

There is a moderate risk that capital investment could slow, dragging economic growth. Electric machinery (including solar panels and battery manufacturing), automotives and chemicals (upstream suppliers) have been major investment drivers in the manufacturing sector in 2023.

Dubai began hosting the 12‑day UN COP28 climate summit on November 30th and announced a US$30bn financing package for global climate‑change solutions.

US crude oil and condensate production reached a new record in September, up by 7.4% year on year. Increased US output is one of several factors that have pushed crude oil prices down since late September, which will continue to undermine OPEC’s efforts to support prices in 2024.