What’s happened?

As expected, on December 14th‑15th the European Council took the historic decision to open EU accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova, while granting candidate status to Georgia. This follows the European Commission’s recommendation in November. The accession process will be complex, and we still expect the chances of Ukraine and Moldova joining the bloc in the 2024‑28 forecast period to be slim.

Why does it matter?

The decision by EU leaders reaffirms our view that there is a greater political will to show prospective member states that the EU is serious about enlargement. The granting of candidate status for EU accession to Ukraine and Moldova in June 2022 accelerated reform efforts in both countries. In November the European Commission praised the progress made by Ukraine and Moldova on conducting recommended reforms—Ukraine fulfilled four of seven recommendations for EU accession negotiations, including hiring anti-corruption officials, preparing the judiciary for a major overhaul and aligning media legislation with EU standards. Moldova has continued reform efforts to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, and fulfilled six out of the nine recommendations.

As EU leaders opened the door to Ukraine and Moldova, they also reiterated a call for reforming the institutional workings of the EU—a process that, according to the Council’s formal conclusions, needs to happen at the same time as EU enlargement. A complete overhaul of the EU treaties is highly unlikely, but gradual changes to the EU’s voting system and the EU budget are possible.

The decision to open accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova came despite objections from the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, who in the past has criticised Ukraine for its policy on minority groups in the country. Mr Orban ultimately chose not to participate in the vote on EU accession, but vetoed a jointly funded €50bn EU funding package for Ukraine. Despite this, EU leaders are likely to find a way to deliver the funding package to Ukraine early next year, either by bringing Mr Orban on board or by forcing the package through without his support.

What next?

The next milestone will be March 2024 when a progress assessment on the fulfilment of the remaining recommendations for both Ukraine and Moldova will take place. The Council will then adopt a negotiating framework for each country, setting out which national laws need to be aligned with the EU’s legislation, the “acquis”. Although we still expect the chances of Ukraine and Moldova joining the bloc in 2024‑28 to be slim, membership benefits are likely to accrue to both countries during the negotiation process. For example, accession talks will unlock new EU funds and act as a domestic policy anchor.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.