What’s happened?

On October 10th the administration of the US president, Joe Biden, issued a series of statements condemning the attack on Israel by Hamas, a US-designated Islamist terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip. Measures announced to support Israel reaffirm US backing for Israel as the latter embarks on a war against Hamas that is likely to drag on for months.

Why does it matter?

The Biden administration will aim to support Israel to prevent the war from evolving into a protracted regional conflict. Mr Biden committed to supplying intelligence assistance and arms to boost Israeli defence capabilities. He also confirmed the deployment of US military assets in the Eastern Mediterranean to serve as a deterrent, reinforcing his warning to other countries and actors not to “take advantage” of the conflict. Mr Biden did not mention any conditions for US support for Israel’s anticipated ground operation in Gaza, but he did signal the importance of adhering to international rules of war. We interpret this as an attempt to balance the administration’s objectives of quickly ending the conflict by neutralising the security threat posed by Hamas, while discouraging excessive force from Israel to limit civilian casualties.

Although we believe that the US response will help to limit the war’s scale, the risk of escalation cannot be discounted. The death of any American hostages in Gaza could pull the US more directly into the conflict. Although our view is that Israel’s military planning does not extend as far as a permanent occupation of Gaza, such an eventuality would prompt widespread rebuke across the Arab World and from Israel’s European allies, halting indefinitely US efforts to normalise Israeli-Arab relations, including with Saudi Arabia. Prospects for a two-state solution, which the Biden administration has kept alive, would vanish.

We do not expect the conflict to directly influence US funding for the Ukraine war. The biggest risk to such funding was a prolonged delay in electing a new Republican speaker of the House of Representatives (the lower house). The Israel-Hamas conflict will help to accelerate this process, as Republicans support additional aid to Israel and Congress cannot approve this without a speaker. Although the conflict has sparked concern about US capacity to sustain military support across multiple regions simultaneously, we believe this is overblown. The Israel-Hamas war could even boost US public support for Ukraine if it is seen as being linked to broader global challenges.

What next?

The US will be in close contact with Israel as it prepares its ground offensive on Gaza, with the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, visiting Israel and Jordan on October 11th-13th. His visit to Jordan reveals the US’s interest in preventing a regional escalation.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.