The EIU nowcast for Q1 2020 GDP growth fell sharply to -1.51% quarter-on-quarter, as on April 3rd.
We have also started producing nowcast for Q2 2020 GDP growth and as of last week (April 3rd), the EIU nowcast model is predicting a severe contraction in the US economy in the second quarter.
GDP is predicted to contract by -12.35 % Q-o-Q in Q2 2020, deteriorating further from the nowcast of -9.58% Q-o-Q as of the week before.
The severe impact of COVID-19 related lockdowns on the US labour market is weighing down heavily on the nowcast of GDP growth.
Non-farm payroll data, released last week, turned negative in almost a decade and fell to one of the lowest levels in recorded history.
But it seems worse is yet to come for the labour market, as seen in the weekly unemployment claims rising again to unprecedented levels of 6.6 million – doubling from the week before.
March data for consumer confidence fell sharply, while purchasing manager’s indices are mostly in the contraction zone – they are expected to fall further as long as the lockdowns continue.
To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.
| Indicators | Reference Period | Latest data | Previous data |
| Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100) | Mar (20’) | 120.00 | 132.60 |
| Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100) | Mar (20’) | 167.70 | 169.30 |
| Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100) | Mar (20’) | 88.20 | 108.10 |
| MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth) | Mar (20’) | 47.80 | 49.00 |
| ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand) | Mar (20’) | 49.10 | 50.10 |
| ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.) | Mar (20’) | -27.00 | 179.00 |
| US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Latest Estimates incl Flash] [Actual] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) | Mar (20’) | 48.55 | 49.21 |
| Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actuals] (SA, Mil.$) | Feb (20’) | 249,508 | 249,409 |
| Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actuals] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Feb (20’) | 434,498 | 434,881 |
| Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actuals] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Feb (20’) | 1,158,604 | 1,158,641 |
| Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) | Feb (20’) | 136,740 | 136,546 |
| Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) | Feb (20’) | 196,627 | 196,430 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (Weekly) (SA, Thous) | For 28th Mar (20’) | 6,648 | 3,283 |
| US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Latest Est incl Flash [Actual] (SA, 50+=Expansion) | Mar (20’) | 39.83 | 39.15 |
| ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing) | Mar (20’) | 52.50 | 57.30 |
| Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous) | Mar (20’) | -701.00 | 275.00 |
| Indicators | Reference Period | Release Date |
| University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100) | Apr (20’) | 9th Apr 2020 |
| University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100) | Apr (20’) | 9th Apr 2020 |
| University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100) | Apr (20’) | 9th Apr 2020 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | Apr (20’) | 9th Apr 2020 |
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