The EIU nowcast is currently predicting the US economy to have contracted by 0.92% quarter-on-quarter during Q1 2020, as of April 17th.
The outlook for the US economy in Q2 2020 continues to be grim, as the EIU nowcast currently projects a contraction by -10.90% quarter-on-quarter.
Hard data on the economic activity like retail sales and industrial production for March showed record declines as the impact from coronavirus-related lockdowns intensified.
Soft data for April including manufacturing activity surveys by the New York and Philadelphia Fed also fell to a multi-year low.
Unemployment claims eased somewhat from the highs of the previous week but the sum of the last four weeks now stands at an unprecedented level of 22 million.
To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.
| Indicators | Reference Period | Latest data | Previous data |
| Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 483,066.00 | 529,262.00 |
| Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100) | Mar (20’) | 103.70 | 109.60 |
| Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity) | Mar (20’) | 72.70 | 77.00 |
| New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units) | Mar (20’) | 1,353.00 | 1,452.00 |
| Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units) | Mar (20’) | 1,216.00 | 1,599.00 |
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion index | Apr (20’) | -78.20 | -21.50 |
| Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion Index | Apr (20’) | -56.60 | -12.70 |
| Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New Orders Index | Apr (20’) | -70.90 | -15.50 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | For 11th Apr (20’) | 5,245.00 | 6,867.00 |
| Indicators | Reference Period | Release Date |
| Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 21st Apr 2020 |
| Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 21st Apr 2020 |
| Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 21st Apr 2020 |
| US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Flash] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) | Apr (20’) | 23rd Apr 2020 |
| New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual] (SAAR, Thous.Units) | Mar (20’) | 23rd Apr 2020 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | Apr (20’) | 23rd Apr 2020 |
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