The EIU nowcast is currently predicting the US economy to have contracted by -0.93% quarter-on-quarter during Q1 2020.
The EIU nowcast for the US economy in Q2 2020 relatively ‘improved’ again last week, but the model still predicts a record contraction of the US economy by -9.08% quarter-on-quarter.
Durable goods data for March showed record decline but came in slightly better than predicted.
April PMI data also fell significantly, but mostly in line with expectations.
Consumer confidence data was revised slightly upwards from their initial estimate, in their latest (final) print.
Unemployment initial claims printed at 4.43m, down from the high at 6.87m three weeks ago — but still at record high levels.
To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.
| Indicators | Reference Period | Latest data | Previous data |
| Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 213184.00 | 249167.00 |
| Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 437420.00 | 434691.00 |
| Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 1135165.00 | 1158527.00 |
| US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Flash] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) | Apr (20’) | 27.00 | 39.83 |
| US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Flash] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) | Apr (20’) | 36.91 | 48.55 |
| New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual] (SAAR, Thous.Units) | Mar (20’) | 1,350.00 | 1,452.00 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | For 18th Apr (20’) | 4,427.00 | 4,427.00 |
| Indicators | Reference Period | Release Date |
| Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100) | Apr (20’) | 28th Apr 2020 |
| Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100) | Apr (20’) | 28th Apr 2020 |
| Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100) | Apr (20’) | 28th Apr 2020 |
| Exports, f.a.s.: Goods (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 28th Apr 2020 |
| Imports, Customs Value: Goods (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 28th Apr 2020 |
| Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$ | Apr (20’) | 30th Apr 2020 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) | Apr (20’) | 30th Apr 2020 |
| MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth) | Apr (20’) | 30th Apr 2020 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | Apr (20’) | 30th Apr 2020 |
| ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand) | Apr (20’) | 1st May 2020 |
| US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) | Apr (20’) | 1st May 2020 |
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