The EIU nowcast for the US economy in Q2 2020 weakened to -10.19% quarter-on-quarter versus the last print of -9.09% (during the last week of April), on account of the record level of job losses.
Employment data were the highlight of last week’s releases — data from BLS and ADP both confirmed staggering job losses in the US economy during April (more than 20 million) courtesy the Covid-19 related lockdowns.
Jobs lost in March 2020 were also revised higher.
Employment has now fallen to its lowest level in almost a decade (since February 2011) and is expected to fall further in May.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index data released for April also showed a contraction, in line with expectations.
To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.
| Indicators | Reference Period | Latest data | Previous data |
| Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 212597.00 | 249203.00 |
| Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 437420.00 | 434649.00 |
| Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 1134908.00 | 1158525.00 |
| Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 128013.10 | 136861.60 |
| Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) | Mar (20’) | 192388.90 | 196591.90 |
| ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index [Actual] (SA, +50=Increasing) | Apr (20’) | 41.80 | 52.50 |
| US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Latest Est incl Flash][Actual](SA, 50+=Expansion) | Apr (20’) | 26.70 | 39.83 |
| ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.) | Apr (20’) | -20236.00 | -149.00 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | For 2nd May(20’) | 3169.00 | 3846.00 |
| Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous) | Apr (20’) | -20500.00 | -870.00 |
| Indicators | Reference Period | Release Date |
| Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$) | Apr (20’) | 15th May 2020 |
| Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100) | Apr (20’) | 15th May 2020 |
| Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity) | Apr (20’) | 15th May 2020 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | May(20’) | 14th May 2020 |
| University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100) | May(20’) | 15th May 2020 |
| University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100) | May(20’) | 15th May 2020 |
| University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100) | May(20’) | 15th May 2020 |
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion index | May(20’) | 15th May 2020 |
To find out more about The EIU’s Nowcasting capabilities, fill in the form below and a member of our team will contact you.Contact us
ViewSphere Global Consultants , founded in 2019, stands as a beacon in Singapore's talent landscape. Our vision is to create a world where expertise knows no boundaries, facilitated by our deep commitment to excellence and innovation in talent management.
© 2024 ViewSphere Global Consultants . All Rights Reserved | Design by viewsphere