The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q2 2020 weakened further to -13.80% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, versus -10.19% during the week ending May 8th.
‘Hard’ data for April saw yet another week of record slump – with the industrial production index witnessing the largest ever drop in history owing to the lockdown and suspended operations of the factories due to COVID-19 outbreak.
Retail Sales & Food Services also experienced a steep decline as most of the sector’s businesses are operating only with very limited capacity or are shut completely.
‘Soft’ data from May, however, showed slight improvement — albeit on a very low base.
University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment indicator surprisingly moved slightly upward in a flash estimate for May.
May release from Empire State Manufacturing Survey diffusion index also saw improvement–from the lows of April–but the index remained far below 0 i.e. in contraction zone.
Overall, the impact of the slump in ‘hard’ data for April outweighed the minor improvements seen in ‘soft’ data from May.
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| Indicators | Reference Period | Latest data | Previous data |
| Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$) | Apr (20’) | 403946.00 | 483476.00 |
| Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100) | Apr (20’) | 92.60 | 104.30 |
| Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity) | Apr (20’) | 64.90 | 73.20 |
| University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100) | May (20’) | 73.20 | 71.80 |
| University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100) | May (20’) | 67.70 | 70.10 |
| University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100) | May (20’) | 41.80 | 52.50 |
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion index | May (20’) | -48.5 | -78.2 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | For 14th May (20’) | 3176.00 | 3867.00 |
| Indicators | Reference Period | Release Date |
| New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units) | Apr (20’) | 18th May 2020 |
| Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units) | Apr (20’) | 19th May 2020 |
| US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) | May (20’) | 21st May 2020 |
| US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) | May (20’) | 21st May 2020 |
| Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion Index | May (20’) | 21st May 2020 |
| Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New Orders | May (20’) | 21st May 2020 |
| Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) | May (20’) | 21st May 2020 |
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