From looking set to win a second presidential term at the start of the year, Donald Trump’s chances of re-election have taken a considerable blow in recent months. The coronavirus pandemic has ushered in the most serious economic recession since the 1930s and civil unrest over racial inequality and police brutality has further exposed Mr Trump’s divisive leadership style. 

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) now expects Joe Biden to win the 2020 presidential election.

Authored by Global Economist, Cailin Birch, a new report from the EIU looks at the key events to have shifted the race for the White House in favour of Joe Biden. Among these is the nationwide protests sparked by the May 25th killing of an unarmed black man, George Floyd.

“Donald Trump’s heavy focus on “law and order” will resonate with his core base. However, his disdain for the protests is likely to mobilise black voters and could antagonise suburban voters, boosting voter turnout for Joe Biden. Since the start of the Black Lives Matter protests in late May, Mr Trump’s net approval ratings have fallen from -10.8% to -14.3%, an 18‑month low and an unenviable starting point for any candidate for re‑election.”

CAILIN BIRCH, THE EIU’S GLOBAL ECONOMIST

Mr Trump’s response to both the civil unrest and continuing pandemic will weigh heavily on his re-election prospects. Importantly, they have been unpopular among the independent voters who will be critical in deciding the outcome of the election.

Download the full report: Presidential race swings in Biden’s favour.