The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q2 2020 further improved to -8.92%
(quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with -9.52% during the week ending June 12th.
The mix of improved May and June data releases last week resulted in further improvement in the nowcast estimate; however, the US economy is still expected to experience a steep contraction in the second quarter.
Retails Sales jumped 17.68% marking the biggest (month-on-month) rise on record as US citizens resumed work and markets reopened with the easing of lockdown.
The housing indicators for May also rose in comparison to the previous month; however, the rise was lower than projections indicating a slower recovery for the housing sector.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey index for general business conditions climbed nearly 50 points to -0.2 in June after deteriorating sharply over the prior two months; however, as the negative number indicates, business activities are still declining overall.
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Indicators for June showed the first positive reading since February 2020 on the back of the gradual reopening of the US economy.
Industrial Production Index and Capacity Utilization for May showed only a muted increase compared to April–as expected– and are still a long way off from recovery.
To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.
Indicators Reference Period Latest data Previous data Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion index Jun (20’) -0.2 -48.50 Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$) May (20’) 485545.00 412576.00 Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units) May (20’) 974.00 934.00 New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit (SAAR, Thous.Units) May (20’) 1220.00 1066.00 Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100) May (20′) 92.60 91.30 Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity) May (20’) 64.80 64.00 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Jun (20′) 1508.00 1897.00 Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion Index Jun (20’) 27.50 -43.10 Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New Orders Jun (20’) 16.70 -25.70
Indicators Reference Period Release Date New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual] (SAAR, Thous.Units) May (20’) 23rd June 2020 US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Flash] [Latest Est incl Flash]](SA, 50+=Expansion) Jun (20’) 23rd June 2020 US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Flash] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) Jun (20’) 23rd June 2020 Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$) May (20’) 25th June 2020 Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$) May (20’) 25th June 2020 Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$) May (20’) 25th June 2020 Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) May (20’) 25th June 2020 Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$) May (20’) 25th June 2020 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Jun (20’) 25th June 2020 Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) May (20’) 26th June 2020 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$) May (20’) 26th June 2020 University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Actuals] (NSA, Q1-66=100) Jun (20’) 26th June 2020 University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Actuals] (NSA, Q1-66=100) Jun (20’) 26th June 2020 University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Actuals] (NSA, Q1-66=100) Jun (20’) 26th June 2020
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