Data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 7th show that goods exports rose by 21.1% year on year in US dollar terms in November, compared with an 11.4% increase in October. Imports grew by 4.5%, following a 4.7% increase the previous month. The trade surplus was US$75.4bn, compared with US$58.4bn in October.

We monitor the world to help you prepare for what’s ahead. Find out more about The EIU’s Country Analysis service.

The record November trade numbers brought year-to-date export performance to an expansion of 2.5% year on year. Despite the depressed state of the global economy, renewed coronavirus (Covid‑19) lockdowns—combined with the Christmas retail season in Western markets—helped to underpin strength in exports of personal protective equipment and medical devices, as well as consumer electronics (up by 34.3%) and furniture (41.9%).

Overseas consumer demand in major markets has also remained unshaken by the pandemic resurgence, with strong year-on-year growth recorded during November in Chinese shipments to the US (46.1%), the EU (8.6%) and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN, 10%). China’s trade surplus with the US grew by 5.5% to US$287.4bn in January-November, despite US efforts to rebalance its trade relationship with China under the first-phase trade deal.

Import performance was softer, constrained mostly by subdued commodity prices. Nevertheless, volume imports of key commodities—including iron ore (-8.1%) and steel and iron articles (-3.9%)—fell back in month-on-month terms, despite continuing to post large year-on-year gains. The Economist Intelligence Unit had highlighted this dynamic amid stockpiling and questionable investment performance, and there is a growing risk that commodities exporters could see Chinese demand fall back in 2021. Conversely, Chinese imports of integrated circuits grew robustly in November, with global demand maintaining Chinese appetite for regional electronics inputs. This has offset the curtailment of Chinese chip stockpiling, and should continue to boost imports from North-east Asia into early 2021.

Strong export performance will make a positive contribution to GDP growth in 2020 and should sustain economic momentum into 2021, despite the expected appreciation of the renminbi (which should otherwise erode export competitiveness). These factors affirm our expectation that policymakers will avoid wide-ranging stimulus that year, even as the trade outlook remains relatively uncertain, including in regards to the future China policy of the US president-elect, Joe Biden.

Impact on the forecast

We will re‑assess our estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth, but already plan to revise our real GDP forecast for 2021 to above 8%, owing to stronger than anticipated export growth that year.