As Europe continues to combat the coronavirus pandemic, there are other key events and trends that organisations should be keeping a close eye on this year. Understandably, all eyes will be on Germany’s federal election as a new chancellor will be elected for the first time in 16 years. Elsewhere in the region, a downgrade of Italy’s sovereign rating is a possibility and Turkey will be looking to avoid a full-blown balance-of-payments crisis.

To prepare organisations for the year ahead, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has recently published a guide to Europe in 2021. The guide looks at everything from major political and economic developments to emerging trends that might have flown under the radar.

Here’s what can be found in our regional guide to Europe in 2021:

Germany

Key things to watch:

• Christian Democratic Party and The Greens: a coalition that upholds the status quo

• Significant policy changes are already underway

• External affairs: a more inward-facing Germany?

Italy

Key things to watch:

• The Salvini-Meloni contest will shape the Italian right… and determine the likely next prime minister

• Sovereign debt: a downgrade of Italy’s rating to junk could see a huge sell-off of bonds

• Italy’s stance on China hardens

Turkey

Key things to watch:

• Government signals return to policy normality

• Expect tight fiscal, credit and monetary policies in 2021

• Risk of a balance-of-payments crisis in 2021

The complete “Europe in 2021” guide is available to download here.

The EIU has created a series of regional guides highlighting the trends to watch in some of the world’s key economies this year. Download your regional guide:

Americas in 2021

Asia in 2021

Middle East & Africa in 2021