Despite differing political systems and levels of development, a clutch of major Asian economies— including Australia, China, Hong Kong, Macau, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam—have each backed policies aimed at eliminating Covid‑19, rather than living with it. 

The features of a “zero Covid” approach include enforcement of stringent lockdown measures when cases emerge; technology-enabled rapid contact tracing and mass testing; and tight international border controls, involving bans on short‑term visits and restrictions on long‑term arrivals, including lengthy quarantine periods in designated facilities.

Zero‑Covid is not economically sustainable

While there have been evident health and economic benefits to a zero‑Covid strategy throughout the course of the pandemic, our latest report, Asia’s transition away from “zero Covid”, finds that this approach will not be sustainable for many markets as the global economy reopens.

Key findings include:

• Deaths among “zero Covid” countries in Asia have been much lower than global peers and the economic impact less severe, contributing to a much shallower recession in Asia in 2020 than in other regions.

• If the rest of the world had adopted a similar approach, zero‑Covid might prove a sustainable strategy. However, it now risks becoming one that will undercut rather than support economic activity as the global economy reopens. 

• Asia’s city states could permanently damage their status as business hubs if they fail to liberalise border controls, and Australia and New Zealand risk missing out on a revival in international tourist and student flows.

• China and Taiwan stand out as the economies in the strongest position to maintain a zero‑Covid strategy, owing to low reliance on cross border flows of capital and talent.

• The Economist Intelligence Unit expects zero‑Covid markets in Asia to retain tight border controls throughout 2021, only loosening from early 2022 when mass vaccination is achieved.

• The policies ultimately adopted by zero‑Covid countries will still be more conservative than those in force in North America and Europe. The approach is likely to target “low Covid”, with the approaches currently taken by Japan and South Korea serving as potential models.

Download our report “Asia’s transition away from “zero Covid” to find out more.