• The Economist Intelligence Unit expects strong growth in world commodity prices in both 2021 and 2022, notably for industrial metals, precious metals and energy—the top exports for the Middle East and Africa (MEA). Most of the major commodity producers in MEA are expected to enjoy rapid growth in export earnings over this period, surpassing 30% year on year for the majority of MEA oil exporters.

• The bounce-back from commodity price lows in 2020 is expected to peter out in 2023 for industrial raw materials, smoothing the export growth curve in many African countries. The resulting slower export growth is attributable to low investment in extraction during 2020 and shallow productivity gains over the forecast period. World crude oil prices will slide in 2023, but OPEC+ production quotas will have been lifted by this time, meaning most of the cartel’s producers will enjoy another year of export growth as oil output and prices rise.

• From 2024 we expect prices for key MEA export commodities to enter a more extensive downtrend as the impact of fiscal stimulus in advanced markets fades and global economic growth retreats from a post-pandemic mini-boom. Again highlighting limited productivity, by 2025 much of the MEA region will be experiencing negative export growth as prices soften.

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