What happened?

Saralrasmi Jenjaka, a member of the Phalang Pracharat (PP) party, suffered a humiliating by-election defeat in District 9 of the capital, Bangkok, on January 30th, coming fourth out of eight candidates. The outcome bodes ill for the electoral prospects of the largest party in the ruling coalition ahead of a legislative election that must be held in 2023. However, the result will have no impact on policymaking, as the coalition continues to enjoy a parliamentary majority, with more than 270 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives (the lower house).

Why does it matter?

PP has suffered three by-election defeats in the past month, indicating a significant drop in its declining popularity. The party secured 116 seats in the 2019 general election and was able to assemble a pro-military coalition with the former coup leader, Prayuth Chan-Ocha, as prime minister. The outcome of the latest by-election will raise questions about PP’s standing as the flagship pro-military party ahead of next year’s election. 

The two largest anti-military opposition parties, Puea Thai and the Move Forward party, did well in the by-election, with Surachart Thienthong winning the seat for Puea Thai. PP’s declining popularity can be attributed to a number of factors. The government’s handling of the pandemic and the related economic fallout has fuelled growing disillusionment among the population. Long-running factional in-fighting in the party probably also contributed to the defeat. 

That said, Prayuth still commands considerable support among conservatives and the business community, who value his leadership and ability to provide relative political stability. It should be noted that PP’s two previous by-election defeats in the south were attributable in part to its pro-military coalition partner, the Democrat Party, and a result of visible differences between parties aligned with the ruling coalition. Nevertheless, the pro-military faction will probably remain a force to be reckoned with in the upcoming election, even if PP loses seats.

What next?

PP’s latest by-election defeat will probably embolden youth-led protests, which we expect to grow further this year. However, our forecast remains that Prayuth will serve out his full term, and the return of a pro-military coalition in the next election cannot be discounted, given the military-royalist alliance’s tight grip on Thai politics. 

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