Two months before the French presidential election, there are many candidates in the race. However, there are only a handful of serious contenders, and the president, Emmanuel Macron, remains the frontrunner. The key question is, will he win re-election? Our forecast is yes. Macron will benefit from France’s strong economic performance (of the EU’s largest four economies, France was the only one to exceed its pre-crisis levels at the end of 2021), while his more controversial reforms have been put on ice. He can also point to some big policy wins earlier in his term, including his flagship labour market reform bill. And perhaps more importantly, he faces a divided opposition. 

On the left, an array of green and centre-left hopefuls will split the vote. On the right, Macron’s challengers are stronger, but again divided. Polls suggest that this election will, like the last one, lead to a second-round contest between Macron in the centre, and Marine Le Pen on the far-right. Larger numbers of people view Le Pen as a palatable option, but still not enough to defeat Macron. Indeed, France’s two-round majoritarian electoral system has helped keep far-right parties out of power in recent years as people tend to vote for the more moderate candidate in the second round.

Could we see a change to our core forecast?

A couple of things could shake up this forecast. Should far-right polemist Eric Zemmour siphon off some of Le Pen’s votes and France’s mainstream centre-right party’s frontrunner Valérie Pécresse match Macron’s skill in the televised pre-­election debates, Macron could end up facing Pécresse in the second round. This would be a tighter contest than a run-off with Le Pen, but we would still expect Macron to win. The main risk to Macron’s re-election, in any scenario, is high abstention in the second round.

How would a Macron victory affect the policy environment?

France and Germany are usually the driving forces in European policy, and with Angela Merkel no longer in the German chancellery, Macron will for the first time be the more experienced leader of these two countries. Should he win re-election, this means that he would be in a powerful position to shape EU policy. Conversely, although unlikely, the election of a far-right Eurosceptic president in France would represent one of the biggest threats to the EU project since its creation, and a major step back for pro-EU integration forces. While Le Pen has dropped her previous support for a French departure from the EU and ditching the euro from her agenda, businesses will be concerned about her support for a more protectionist France, a tough approach to law and order, opposition to immigration, as well as her scepticism about the country’s membership of both the EU and NATO. A surge in fears about her potential election among the business community could see bond yields spike, investment stall and confidence decline. 

This year is dominated by a series of important elections. Uniquely positioned to intersect politics, policy and the economy, EIU Country Report’s should be vital reading when assessing how decisions at the ballot box will affect your business operations. All our reports are available to explore here.