• In 2023, ruling political parties standing for re-election across Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America will face an uphill battle at the election polls amid still-high inflation and slowing growth. 

• Europe: Turkey, Spain, Greece, Cyprus and Poland elections. In Europe, we believe that the political landscape will shift further to the right following a string of legislative elections. A surge in support for the right-wing Spanish People’s Party is likely to result in Spain becoming the third major European country after Italy and Sweden to have a government that includes or is backed by a far-right party following 2023’s elections. By contrast, Greece’s new electoral rules could cause the ruling centre-right government there to lose its parliamentary majority. We also believe that the liberal opposition party in Poland could gather enough support to secure a parliamentary majority in the Polish elections, leading to improved relations between Poland and the EU. Finally, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will face one of the toughest tests of his 20-year rule; he is likely to remain in power, but to lose his majority in parliament in the 2023 Turkey elections, owing to the country’s unstable economy.  Cyprus also held presidential elections in February 2023, where the country’s former foreign minister, Nikos Christodoulides, was elected.

• Asia: Pakistan, New Zealand, Bangladesh and Thailand elections. In Asia, our analysts will watch closely election polls in Thailand and Pakistan, where military influence in politics runs deep. The political opposition in Thailand looks set to make substantive gains, but constitutional restrictions mean that the military will still (controversially, for many Thais) determine the make-up of the next government. In Pakistan’s elections, we believe that there is a moderate risk that a victory for the former prime minister, Imran Khan, who has troubled relations with the military leadership, could result in another coup. In Bangladesh and New Zealand, we expect that strong support for each country’s government will keep the ruling parties in power, despite a slight rise in popularity for the opposition parties in the 2023 elections. Read our full report on Asia’s 2023 elections outlook and predictions.

• Latin America: Peru and Argentina elections. In Latin America, the economic policies and political (in)competence of some of the ruling parties will heavily influence the outcome of this year’s elections. We expect Argentina’s centre-left government to lose, unless it makes significant progress in correcting macroeconomic distortions. Following an attempted coup by Peru’s former president in 2022, elections there have already been moved to 2024, but there is a risk that political unrest will force the current prime minister to resign before then, prompting an early general election this year.

• Africa: Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Libya and Democratic Republic of the Congo elections. In Africa, we expect security and political stability to be the biggest factors in key elections in 2023. Nigeria’s elections in February will be the most important to watch in the region. The contest will be tight amid deteriorating security conditions and widening inequalities, but we expect the ruling party to remain in power. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a recent sharp escalation in insecurity in the east of the country will make for a close race, but we expect the incumbent president to be re-elected by a small margin. In Zimbabwe’s elections, we expect the current government to remain in power, given opposition groups’ limited ability to implement electoral reforms. Finally, Libya’s elections could prove to be a flashpoint for civil unrest in the region in 2023.

The election analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.