In EIU’s latest global outlook video, global forecasting director Agathe Demarais and senior analyst, Cody Feldman, discuss some of the key elections around the world in 2023 and why they matter. 

Elections in Nigeria and Argentina are among the most important to watch this year. In Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous country, the results, due in February, will be tight. Security in Nigeria has deteriorated sharply in recent years as inequality has widened. EIU expects that the ruling All Progressives Congress’s candidate, Bola Tinubu, will have the upper hand. However, he will be challenged by a third-party opponent, Peter Obi, who could turn the election on its head. 

Similarly, Argentina’s ruling party will contend with serious opposition as the current centre-left government is facing strong anti-incumbency sentiment, growing public perceptions of corruption and a difficult economic situation. Elsewhere in the world, Europe will also go to the polls.

“We can also expect changes in government or policy direction from all of the key races taking place in Europe. Turkey is of a particular note, as the current president, Recep Ergodan, is likely to see one of the tightest races of his 20-year rule. Turkey experienced soaring inflation in 2022 and the Turkish lira has tumbled repeatedly against the US dollar and euro, raising the risk of a balance-of-payment crisis.”

CODY FELDMAN, SENIOR ANALYST, GLOBAL FORECASTING, EIU

In Poland, where the current government has clashed with the EU over judicial and social reforms, relations with the EU could improve if the liberal opposition secures a parliamentary majority. 

In Spain, the fourth largest economy in the EU, the far-right Spanish People’s Party could win the largest vote-share. This would make Spain the third major European country to have a government that includes or is backed by a far-right party (after Italy and Sweden).

Learn more about upcoming elections in 2023 through EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.