On June 23rd Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, a Russian paramilitary group involved in Ukraine, declared his intention to take down Russia’s military leadership. On June 24th videos emerged showing Wagner forces outside Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don, which they took seemingly with no resistance. Wagner fighters then moved towards the Russian capital, Moscow, before turning around after negotiating with the Belarusian president, Alyaksandar Lukashenka. On June 26th Mr Prigozhin declared that he had no intention to undermine the Russian regime.

On the face of it, the event suggests that the Russian regime is more vulnerable than it had previously appeared. Although the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, ordered his security forces to crush the rebellion, there was minimal resistance as Wagner’s forces advanced towards Moscow. In addition, the fact that Mr Prigozhin may not be prosecuted is a clear challenge to Mr Putin’s authority, given the severity of Mr Prigozhin’s actions. However, the Russian military did not seem to join the coup attempt and the mutiny ended quickly. This suggests that many military leaders remain loyal to Mr Putin—leading the coup attempt to falter as Mr Prigozhin failed to gather support.

The mutiny prompted a rare public display of discontent, with part of the population appearing to welcome Wagner paramilitaries. However, the reaction of the wider population and that of the inner circles of power remains hard to gauge. On the one hand, these events could encourage future challenges to Mr Putin’s grip on power. On the other, Mr Putin is likely to start purges of those that he believes failed to show their loyalty during the attempted coup, further reinforcing his grip on power (at least in the short term).

The loss of the Wagner troops involved in the uprising could damage morale in the Russian army just as Ukraine is mounting a large counter-offensive to regain control over its eastern and southern regions. Wagner troops that did not back the revolt will probably sign regular contracts with the Russian army. However, some troops might decide against that, further eroding the size of the Russian force and giving Ukraine an edge on the battlefield.

In the short term we expect Mr Putin to reassert his authority, including by integrating other paramilitary groups into Russia’s official military structure and potentially instigating a purge among the elite. Nonetheless, on balance, risks to political stability and Mr Putin’s regime have increased—and further coup attempts are possible, including in the short term. The Ukrainian forces are likely to capitalise on Russia’s political and military turmoil to advance their positions on the battlefield.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this piece can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the economic, political and policy outlook for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.