The UAE government has approved an updated National Energy Strategy, enshrining goals to triple renewable power‑generation capacity and increase the share of clean energy (including nuclear) in the energy mix to 30% by 2030 as it prepares to host the COP28 international climate summit in November. We expect the UAE to continue to take a lead regionally in setting and meeting renewable uptake commitments.

The strategy brings together existing emirate‑level plans and reflects swift progress with the development of the UAE’s solar and nuclear power capacity, driven largely by a desire to conserve its natural gas supplies for export. The UAE committed to becoming carbon‑neutral by 2050 in 2021, and the original National Energy Strategy, published in 2017, called for an energy mix comprising 50% renewables and nuclear by that date. The new plan lays out an implementation process and shorter‑term targets for cutting emissions, at least domestically. Meanwhile, the choice of the UAE, a large and growing oil exporter, to host the COP28 climate summit has proved highly controversial.

The updated strategy calls for renewables capacity to increase to 14.2 GW by 2030, from 3.7 GW currently—an achievable goal, given the pace of development of renewables in individual emirates. Emirates Water and Electricity Company (owned by the Abu Dhabi government) received bids in early July from prospective developers of its 1.5‑GW third solar photovoltaic plant and is expected to begin the process for a fourth plant of similar size by year‑end. Abu Dhabi officials have targeted procuring at least 1 GW annually in solar capacity over the next decade. The Dubai government originally set a target to reach 5‑GW capacity by 2030 at Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum solar park. It currently stands at 2,427 MW, following completion of the 900‑MW fifth phase. Masdar (Abu Dhabi) and ACWA Power (Saudi Arabia) are competing to develop the 1.8‑GW sixth phase. Although solar will remain the main alternative power source, minor contributions to non‑hydrocarbons capacity will come from waste‑to‑energy (the first phase of a 220‑MW facility at Dubai’s Warsan landfill became operational in early July) and a 250-MW pumped‑storage hydropower project under construction at Hatta, also in Dubai. The fourth and final reactor (1.2 GW) at the South Korean‑built Barakah nuclear power plant is under testing for anticipated start‑up in 2024. 

The UAE’s main emirates will continue their accelerating renewables development as planned during the 2023‑27 forecast period, freeing up gas for export and industrial use and supporting strong real GDP growth and external balances, even as international oil prices ease. We expect the national target to be met: installed solar and nuclear capacity will reach about 20 GW by end‑decade.

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